Guide PMBOK 5th Edition Study Guide 11: Risks (New PMP Exam Cram)

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Ready to pass your PMP exam but need a final boost to get you there? Want to pass the PMP exam before the exam changes in ? This is the course for you. We'll also review all of the project management processes you should know for your PMP exam.

We've pared down the fluff and drill down into the exam objectives. If you're serious about passing the PMP exam and need a final push for exam day, this is the seminar for you. PMP Handbook from www. He has consulted as a project manager for a range of businesses, including startups, hospitals, architectural firms, and manufacturers. Joseph is passionate about helping students pass the PMP certification exam. He has created and led both in-person and web-based seminars on project management, PMP certification, IT project management, program management, writing, business analysis, technical writing, and related topics.

Expert judgement, to assess probability and impact. Expert judgement can be secured using facilitated workshops. What are the scales of probability and impact? Probability scale - 0. The risk score helps guide risk responses. What is the risk probability scale? What is the risk impact scale?

Risk register updates, with: - Relative ranking or priority list of project risks - Risks grouped by categories to reveal common root causes - Causes of risk or project area requiring particular attention - List of risk requiring response in the near-term urgent risks - List of risks for additional analysis and response - Watch-lists of low priority risks - Trends in qualitative analysis results, as risk analysis is repeated on the project, a trend may appear making risk response or additional analysis more or less important. Describe the process The process numerically analyzes the effect of identified risk events on overall project objectives.

It is performed on risks that have been prioritized by the Qualitative Risk Analysis process as potentially and substantially impacting the project's completing demands. Perform quantitative risk analysis may not be required on all projects, dependent on available time and budget. It should be performed again after Plan Risk Responses and during Monitor and Control Risks to determine if project risk has been satisfactorily addressed.

Risk register 2. Risk management plan 3. Cost management plan, which details with cost 4. Schedule management plan, which deals with project schedule 5. Organization process assets, including information on prior similar completed projects, studies of similar project by risk specialists, and risk databases available from industry of proprietary sources.

Data gathering and representation techniques, including: - interviewing, including three point estimating to obtain ranges of values - Probability distributions, such as beta distributions and triangular distributions of probability 2. Quantitative risk analysis and modeling techniques, including: - Sensitivity analysis to determine which risks have the most impact - Expected monetary value analysis, which determines a value by multiplying each outcome by its probability and adding the results together.

This is commonly used in decision tree analysis. Results will be probability distribution of results. Expert Judgement used to identify potential cost and schedule impacts, to evaluate probability and define inputs to analysis tools. Expert judgement is also used in interpreting the results. Risk register updates, including: - Probabilistic analysis of the project, showing results with associated confidence levels.

What is modeling and simulation? Simulations uses a representation of model of a system to analyze the behavior or performance of the system.

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What is probabilistic analysis of the project? Forecasts of potential project schedule and costs results listing the possible completion dates or project duration and costs with their associated confidence levels. What is probability of achieving the cost and time objectives?

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The probability of meeting the project objectives with the current plan. It takes into consideration all previous risk analysis and quantifies the probability of the current plan cost and schedule. Plan Risk Responses is the process of developing options and determining actions to enhance opportunities and reduce threats to the project's objectives. Risk responses must be appropriate, cost effective, and realistic. Includes identification and assignment of one or more persons the "risk response owner" to take responsibility for each agreed-to and funded risk response.

Project management plan is updated ans necessary to implement responses. Risk register, with all information developed so far 2. Risk management plan, including roles and responsibilities, definitions, etc. Strategy or mix of strategies most likely to be effective should be selected for each risk. Primary and backup strategies may be s elected. A fallback plan can be developed if the selection strategy turns out not to be effective, or if an accepted risk occurs. Strategies for negative risks or threats Avoid, Transfer, Mitigate, Accept 2.

Strategies for positive risks or opportunities Exploit, Share, Enhance, Accept 3. Contingent response strategies. Some responses are designed for use only if certain events occur.

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Involves defining actions to be executed under certain predefined conditions, if it is believed there will be sufficient warning to implement the plan. Events that trigger the contingency responses should be defined and tracked. Expert judgement related ot the actions to be taken. Describe the negative risk strategy Avoid. Risk avoidance is changing the project plan to eliminate the risk or condition or to protect project objectives from its impact.

Although we can never eliminate all risk events, some specific risks may be avoided.

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Describe the negative risk strategy Transfer. Risk transfer si seeking to shift the consequence of a risk toa third party together with ownership of the response. Risk transfer does not eliminate the risk, it just transfers responsibility for its management.

Insurance or an insurance-like arrangement such as bonding is often available to deal with some categories of risk. Describe the negative risk strategy Mitigate. Risk probabilities or impacts can often by reduced by changing the planned approach. The more flexibility the project team has, the more valuable mitigation is. Describe the negative risk strategy Accept. Indicates that the project management team will not modify the project management plan to deal with a risk, or is unable to come up with a viable response.

Acceptance can be either passive just wait for the risk to happen , or active plan now for how to deal with the risk if it happens. These are what contingency reserves are used for. What is Contingency Allowance? Most common risk acceptance response is to establish a contingency allowance, or reserve, including amounts of time, money, or resources to account for known risks. The allowance should be determined by the impacts, computed at an acceptable level of risk exposure, for the risks that have been accepted. What are Contingency Reserves?

A separately planned quantity used to allow for future situations which may be planned for only in part sometimes called "known unknowns". For example, rework is certain, the amount of rework is not. Contingency Reserves may involve cost, schedule, or both. Contingency Reserves are intended to reduce the impact of missing cost or schedule objectives. Contingency Reserves are normally included in the project's cost and schedule baseline.

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What are Management Reserves? A separately planned quantity used to allow for future situations which are impossible to predict sometimes called "unknown unknowns". Management Reserves may involve cost or schedule. Management Reserves are intended to reduce the risk of missing cost or schedule objectives. Use of Management Reserve requires a change to the project's cost baseline.

Describe the positive risk strategy Exploit. Organization wishes to ensure that the opportunity is realized by eliminating the uncertainty associated with a particular upside risk by making the opportunity definitely happen. Responses such as. Describe the positive risk strategy Share. Allocating ownership to a third party who is best able to capture the opportunity for the benefit of the project. Describe the positive risk strategy Enhance. Response such as: - Facilitate the cause of the opportunity - Proactively target the trigger conditions - Proactively target the impact drivers.

Describe the positive risk strategy Accept. Accepting an opportunity is being willing to take advantage, but doing nothing to make it happen. Risk register updates 2. Risk-related contract decisions, such as insurance, services, etc. Project management plan updates, including updates to the schedule management plan, cost management plan, quality management plan, procurement management plan, human resource management plan, the WBS, and the schedule and cost baselines.

Project document updates, including the assumption log and technical documentation. What additional components of the risk register can now be included after Plan Risk Responses? WBS element affected, their causes, and how they may affect project objectives. Process of: - Implementing risk response plans - Identifying, analyzing , and planning for newly arising risks - Keeping track of the identified risks and those on the watch list - Monitoring residual risks - Evaluating the effectiveness of the risk management process This process applies techniques such as variance and trend analysis, requiring the use of performance information.

Other purposes include determining if: - Project assumptions are still valid - Analysis shows a risk has changed or can be retired closed - Risk management policies and procedures are being followed - Contingency reserves should be adjusted Can involved: - Choosing alternative strategies - Implement contingency plans - Taking corrective actions - Modifying the project management plan Risk response owners report periodically on the effectiveness of the plan, unanticipated effects, and any mid-course corrections needed to handle the risk appropriately.

Risk register, listing risks and other information 2. Project management plan, including the risk management plan 3. Work performance information, including deliverable status, schedule progress, and costs incurred 4.

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  • Performance reports, including variance analysis, earned value data, and forecasting results. Risk reassessment, including identifying new risks and closing risks 2. Risk audits, which examine and document the effectiveness of risk management processes 3. Variance and trend analysis, comparing planned and actual 4.

    Technical performance measurement, which monitors specific, quantifiable measures of technical performance appropriate to the application area of the project. Reserve analysis based on risks that have or have not occurred, to determine if reserves should be adjusted. Status meetings, which should include project risk management as an agenda item to keep some attention focused on risks. Risk register updates, including outcomes of reassessments, audits, and risk reviews, along with actual outcomes of the risks and responses for historical information purposes 2.

    Organizational process assets updates, to capture project risk information for future use as well as lessons learned. Change requests to implement contingency plans, or to recommend corrective or preventive actions. Project management plan updates, revised and reissued to reflect approved changes 5.

    Project document updates, including the same documents that m ay be updated in Plan Risk Response process.