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To analyze and monetize the effects associated with these uncertainties the real option valuation method was applied which is better equipped to incorporate uncertainty and determine the profitability of circular business model than traditional investment decisions metrics such as the net present valuation NPV method.

Results suggest that the NPV can significantly underestimate the value of circular business models; for example, the profitability for the recycling scenario was underestimated by a factor five using the NPV method. Furthermore, the risk premium was calculated as a means to quantify the implicit costs for companies associated with the vulnerability stemming from increasing and volatile resource prices. The risk premium corresponds to the value by which circular end-of-life strategies mitigate the potential impact of rising and volatile resource prices. Outcomes suggest that applying circular business models in the form of smarter end-of-life scenarios for the production and refurbishment of lamps may recover value over the production lifecycle.

Open Access version via Utrecht University Repository. See more statistics about this item. The colour scale is based on the RMSE. The difference in nature of the two ensembles is clear from the two panels. The error decreases from a median value of For reference, the square represents the ideal point corresponding to an independent and identically distributed models i.

If the models are i. It reflects the independent development of global and regional models. The change in accuracy is generally smaller since the optimal single-scale pool contains models with not very different errors. The same holds for the distributions they passed the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test.

Opportunity Culture Impact

The mmeS-GR generally improves the indices compared to mmeS-R, even though global models are included. Like before, the improvements are seen in all datasets, despite their temporal aggregation. From the picture we see that, regardless of the treatment, the ensemble data capture the ozone power spectrum with no notable deviation from the measured spectrum from one another. It is important to note that an ensemble treatment is a purely statistical treatment that does not consider any physics constraints.

The deficiencies that were originally present in the individual model spectra are still present in the ensemble results, particularly the large power deficit in the range from 0. The analysis presented above gives us clear indications that the combination of the two sets of models analysed produces an improvement in the ensemble performance.

In particular, the hybrid ensemble appears to be superior to any single-scale ensemble in the optimum setting. For example, given six global, six regional, and three global and three regional ensembles, the optimization always favours the hybrid ensemble. This was repeated for all examined cases: the annual hourly records, the JJA hourly records and the annual daily maximum records.

Some important considerations need to be taken into account at this point. It is difficult to find quantitative evidence for the fact that the hybrid ensemble improvement can be unequivocally attributed to the multi-scale nature of the ensemble. We have no evidence, nor guarantee, that the same kind of improvement could be reached by adding more regional-scale models to the regional-scale ensemble, or more global models to the global-scale ensemble.

However, what is a clear conclusion is that the regional-scale ensemble is characterized by a higher level of redundancy in the members than the global ensemble, since fewer than half of the members produced the optimal ensemble, and that the use of the three best members from the regional-scale ensemble and three best global-scale models produces an improvement in the ensemble performance.

The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the U. Environmental Protection Agency. It is not affiliated with a conference. RSE contribution to this work has been financed by the research fund for the Italian electrical system under the contract agreement between RSE S.

Edited by: Tim Butler Reviewed by: two anonymous referees. Brandt, J. Bretherton, C. Climate, 12, —, Colette, A. Dentener, F. Fiore, A. Flemming, J. Model Dev. Galmarini, S. Henze, D. Im, U. Janssens-Maenhout, G.


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Jonker, H. Jonson, J. Kioutsioukis, I. Krogh, A. Mathur, R. Pennel, C. Climate, 24, —, Pielke Sr. Potempski, S. Rao, S. CO;2 , Riccio, A.

University of Twente Student Theses

Simpson, D. Solazzo, E. Sudo, K. Model description, J. Talagrand, O. Tebaldi, C. Watanabe, S. Xing, J. Annales Geophysicae. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques. Climate of the Past. Earth Surface Dynamics. Earth System Dynamics. Geoscience Communication. Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems. Geoscientific Model Development. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics. The Cryosphere. Advances in Geosciences. Encyclopedia of Geosciences. Journal topic ACP. Author Title Abstract Full text. Abstract Introduction The models used and the case study Preliminary analysis of the two groups of models Analysis of the ensembles and building the hybrid one Discussion and conclusions. How much is the improvement attributable to the hybrid character of the ensemble?

ACP Articles Volume 18, issue Article Peer review Metrics Related articles. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.

MODELING OPPORTUNITY - THE LEROYS

Two-scale multi-model ensemble: is a hybrid ensemble of opportunity telling us more? Two-scale multi-model ensemble. Two-scale multi-model ensemble Stefano Galmarini et al. Supplement KB. How to cite. Accuracy generally improved less than diversity. Data availability. Competing interests. By using the RAMP model you should be able to do a thorough job analyzing your business ideas and opportunities presented to you.

If you identify a flaw or your idea really is not an opportunity, leave your idea behind. Learn from the experience and start on developing your next great idea that is also a good commercial opportunity. Author: Ryan P Allis. It could be possible to come up with a unique idea by questioning what is currently seen as a standard or acceptable.


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  • To evaluate opportunities, ask the following questions: What is the need you fill or problem you solve? Value Proposition Who are you selling to? Target Market How will you make money? Revenue Model How will you differentiate your company from what is already out there?

    Subscription models could present print opportunity

    Unique selling proposition What are the barriers to entry? How many competitors do you have and of what quality are they? Competitive Analysis How big is your market in dollars? Market Size How fast is the market growing or shrinking?


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    • Market Growth What percentage of the market do you believe you could gain? Market Share What type of company will this be? Start-up Costs Do you plan to use debt capital or raise investment? If so, how much and what type?

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      Investment needs Do you plan to sell your company or go public list the company on the stock markets one day? Exit Strategy If you take on investment, how much money do you think your investors will get back in return? Is it profitable? Will your revenues be higher than your expenses? Time to break even. How long will it take before you have positive cash flow?