This scenario avoids conflict through global political cooperation rather than confrontation - with resources and the environment key areas for action. For example, despite massive demand for water, potential water wars are averted through good-faith treaties, the sharing of resources, development of new clean water supplies, advanced desalination technology. Renewable energy is developing rapidly.
This unstable scenario - a mix of conservatism, welfarism, regulation, anti-business, alternative approaches to security - opens but does not resolve a debate on how value shifts may change the direction of the world economy and how long such shifts might last. The values shift is driven both by a moral shift as well as by the understanding that security is linked to income i. But it is not clear how long this shift can last: hence the notion of false horizons.
Nations and economies look inward. There is no ability to deal collectively with less directly threatening issues such global warming - the temptation to "free ride" is irresistible. At the national level, this is a world of highly restrictive regulation, with heavy-handed curtailment of trade in goods, services, people, knowledge and capital. This primarily inward looking, look-after- oneself world is tense, full of fears and a sense of insecurity as a result. The formation of networks in a network economy help companies create new business opportunities.
Companies develop new products, open up markets and are continually reorganizing within networks. Companies that want to actively deal with new technology, changes in consumer behavior, and economic drivers will have to work successfully in a network economy. This article focuses on network formation and network economy. The network economy has led to the formulation of the following three laws: 1 David Sarnoffs Law, former-chairman of the RCA Corp: the value of a non-interactive network is proportional to the number of users; 2 Bob Metcalfe's Law, founder of 3Com Corporation and inventor of the Ethernet: the value of an interactive network increases with the square of the number of users; 3 David Reed's Law, researcher HP Laboratories and MIT Media Laboratory: the value of a social network with open peer-to-peer information exchange scales exponentially with the size of the network.
These laws can be metaphors for worlds observed in scenarios. Sarmoff's Law applies to a reality in classical economics where companies serve their customers in a formal market relation. Customers are seen as solitary, rational actors who maintain a relation to the firm. Metcalfe's Law shows us networks of customers that share information and make choices together. It is assumed that there are no dominant players in such a network.
Reed's Law connects to networks where a few dominant actors are present, but there are also a large number of participants that exert little or no influence in the network. In this article, networks have been named according to the 'laws' that best describe the nature of the network concerned. Here are excerpts from the article that describes the three laws and their implications in detail. Scenario 1 Future of Corporations in Sarnoff networks. New applications will enable a further reduction of production and transaction costs. For this reason, the search for economies of scale will be a constant battle against time.
Market competitors will also try to realize increasing returns by using cost reductions to lower the selling price. Sarnoff networks will in particular bring forth commodities and this development will be strongest in such networks. Merges and takeovers will likely prove to be inevitable, as will be the loss of employment. Possibly, the largest threat Sarnoff networks contain is embedded in the low value of the informal networks concerned. The formalization of the organization, often through empowering protocol and formalized relations, limits the ability of these companies to adjust to not only to new technology, but also to new developments in their market.
Where the level of uncertainty rises in the years to come, and the success of organizations will be more dependant on their ability to adjust to new, barely predictable developments, companies based on a Sarnoff network will struggle, in spite of their relative size and financial power.
Barbabasi adds: 'These days the value is in ideas and information. We have gotten to the point that we can produce anything we can dream of. The expensive question now is: what should that be? This market in developed nations may be mature, developing economies offer many chances. Amongst others they look after the possibility of reducing the number of management layers emphasizes horizontal organizational structures. New external alliances are sought and found. Increasingly, companies realize that they cannot survive without these networks. Connectivity with other organizations and institutions has progressively become a prerequisite.
Management literature of recent years is filled with analyses, prognoses and recommendations concerning these issues. Consequently the network-company has matured on the drawing boards. But practice is unruly. Even if an organization attains a high quality level, success is not guaranteed. Even more frustrating is the observation that when a business is successful, this success cannot always be attributed to the quality of its products.
Watts has remarked: 'The difference between a hugely successful innovation and an abject failure can be generated entirely through the dynamics of interactions between players who might have had nothing to do with its introduction. The future of Metcalfe networks in a growing network economy lies with smaller companies or parts of companies in which personal service based activities are the core business.
Especially many smaller and medium sized businesses serve many customers that can be described as actors in a random network. As long as they realize the limits of this situation, chances are slim that these organizations will expect too much of their innovation, production and sales efforts. Ambitious companies focus on Reed networks. Quite possibly they are a part of such networks already without realizing it themselves. They find themselves in a structure that contains certain characteristics. The most important of these may be the existence of dominant companies and, because of this, the lack of a large segment of middle-sized firms.
As a result of this there is a quest for a dominant role in the market. This position is attractive, not in the least from a financial viewpoint. It is this position that often leads to enormous profit. The battle for the largest share of the market is magnified by the expectation that these markets will exhibit a great amount of growth over the following years.
Postcards from the Future: The Futures of Branding. Nathan Shedroff and Davis Masten. Postcards from the Future is a new book developed by two brand professionals about the future of the brand industry. The authors, Shedroff and Masten took the results of the workshops and created eight visions in which branding plays key—and often scary—roles. The book combines both visuals and in-depth analysis, making it a source of fresh and challenging thinking to designers, marketers, brand professionals, executives, and cultural anthropologists.
The following are brief overviews of eight brand visions. For the detailed report, contact the AIGA. Scenario 1 Economic Nirvana. How does this effect the development of global brands? Or, local ones? Do brands face more competition or less? Does everyone become more or less brand-conscious?
Does increased prosperity increase the quantity of brands? What about the quality? Whether due to lack or resources or accessibility , too much demand, insecure speculation, or political conflict that destroys the carefully balanced and orchestrated coordination of trade between countries, all monetary systems are severely devalued and a majority of people have problems meeting subsistence needs.
Do people even worry about "brands" in this climate? Are they more concerned with quality, substance, or "real" value as a result? Or, are they even more oriented to brands that help them make quick judgments and decisions about their needs? Are they so busy with survival that issues of style, fashion, and more ethereal concerns mostly go unaddressed? People can now extensively customize their designs for cars, clothing, pre-made foods, jewelry, curricula, and pets just like many houses have been for a long time. What does this do to traditional brands?
If these products can now be changed substantially, are they even the same products any more? Do brands disappear? Can they compete? Do the customization processes and experiences themselves become the significant brands? Do product brands fade and corporate brands become more important? There is a new interest in cultural connection to others and building shared experiences and identities. Status as a member of a group is more important to most consumers than status as an individual. These groups might be cultural, religious, corporate, professional, local, regional, national, or ideological.
What might help brands compete in such a competitively reduced set of brands? How does our construction of identity change or influence the formation of these brands? These people tend to be less brand-influenced and more motivated to either eschewing brands or developing their own brands. Imagine what would change if many more people became mavericks in their personal and professional lives. Could the stable order of work and life be maintained without the automated responses by consumers and expectations by companies around mass adoption of consumer brands?
What happens when everyone not only establish their own, personal brands, but also forges their own path?
Not only are environmentally-oriented brands becoming more popular, but also processes that are thought to help the environment are adopted in full force such as reuse, recycling, composting, reduction, etc. How do these new concerns change the adoption, perception, and creation of brands? What do products and services that are seen to either have no clear relation to the environment or are actually bad for the environment do to react to these market conditions?
Do they reposition? Change their products, services, or resources if they can? Do they hibernate? Only inside our homes or in some cases, our rooms are we physically private and we are almost never private in a virtual space. Cameras watch our driving and GPS pointers and satellites monitor our speed and route , our working, and our movement in restaurants, bars, casinos, shops, and plazas. Microphones listen into our conversations with customers, colleagues, peers, and family members. Workers from nannies to store clerks to managers-and even some executives are monitored via camera, phone, and email.
What effect does this have on the appearance and development of, identification with, and visualization and presentation of brands? Are people less likely to adopt or display brands? Will they tend to use brands as camouflage? Can brands somehow augment our sense of privacy? Using New York City as a focus, since it has both opportunity and pressing need to reframe itself, what directions can the city take in evolving its already strong brand? How should it differentiate itself from other cities and, indeed, where is it already positioned?
What mechanisms can be used to both create and promote new or newly articulated values? Is it possible for a city to have a brand? Is it possible to create or manage a brand for an experience as complex as a city? Who makes the decisions and how can it be managed? Is agreement needed at all levels-or any at all? Is there a process that can be employed? Is there a client? How does one measure success? Independent Newspapers UK, The respected forecasting group Henley Centre Headlight Vision tested public attitudes to help it guess what kind of a society consumers might impact in 20 years' time.
Caring about others or the problems of poverty may take a back seat. The following presents an overview of the scenarios. Contact the Fabian Society for the pamphlet containing the complete scenarios.. Scenario 1 Choice Unlimited. This is a scenario in which today's consumerist culture would become stronger; ethical consumption less mainstream and people would engage with international issues only sporadically. This is the type of scenario in which most people would have "personal home stylists" who would refresh their wardrobes, kitchen and interiors every four to six weeks.
Scenario 2 My Home, My Castle. In this scenario, consumers would look inward; are suspicious of each other and encourage the Government to concentrate on consumers rather than global issues. The government look inward, community suspicion grows and government is encouraged to focus on the citizens rather than international issues. Scenario 3 The Puritans Return. This scenario would see people focusing much more on local issues, a rise in self-righteousness, the poor regarded by the masses as undeserving and the government expected to set a "moral" agenda at home.
Scenario 4 The Good Life. In this scenario, community involvement grows and politicians come under under increasing public pressure to focus on global social and environmental justice. Green issues would be part of mainstream politics and climate change at the top of the agenda. After this study was published, the Trade Justice Movement was inspired to come up with a visioning exercise to the year with additional contributions from Jubilee Debt Coalition. The group discussed the reality of the business cycle and agreed on the following global and economic trends that are most relevant to business and global consumerism: 1 Growing power of trananational corporations — TNCs will continue to grow in reach, wealth and power.
This trend is likely to continue in the West and to spread to emergent economies with unpredictable political, economic and cultural consequences; 3 Climate change - Global warming will be headed to well above 2 degrees C resulting in runaway climate change, with impacts already felt hard in poor economies; 4 Civil Society — More diffuse in the North and South; more militant.
China likely to continue its dramatic growth through ; 9 Migration — Increased protectionism against migration. Unsustainable population growth will be very big, fueling illegal migration and unsustainable use of environment; 10 Power will probably continue to shift to the larger developing countries China in particular — this will affect existing institutions and may lead to a new South-South trade agreements and new institutions.
ISBN This World Bank report examines the stresses and benefits of integration in a global economy. The progressive expansions of China and India, the two largest developing economies and home to half the people of the developing world, are projected to drive the process. Their impact on the global economy will be increasingly felt as their exports and energy use, for example, approach the levels of the European Union and the United States. The next wave of globalization will see the growing economic weight of developing countries in the international economy, the potential for increased productivity that is offered by global production chains, and the accelerated diffusion of technology.
The World Bank also writes extensively about three growing consequences: growing inequality, pressures in labor markets, and threats to the global commons. The full report is available through the World Bank. Central Scenario to the Year And while the pace of economic expansion is slowing, developing economies are projected to grow by an average 7.
Over the next 25 years, developing countries will move to centre stage. Global economic growth is forecast to be faster in the year period between and than the corresponding period This is an average annual increase of 3 per cent In the central scenario, even though the incomes of developing countries will still be less than one-quarter those in rich countries in , these incomes continue to converge with those of wealthy countries.
This implies that countries as diverse as China, Mexico and Turkey will have average living standards roughly comparable to Spain today. While rich and poor countries alike stand to benefit from global economic growth, certain stresses already apparent--in income inequality, in labor markets and in the environment-- become more acute. Over the next 25 years, rapid technological progress, burgeoning trade in goods and services, and the increased integration of financial markets will facilitate faster long-term growth. However, some regions, notably Africa, are at risk of being left behind.
Moreover, even though many in the developing world are likely to enter what can be called the 'global middle class', income inequality widens within many countries. At the same time, low-wage competition from China, India and other developing countries--not only in goods trade but also in services--will place additional pressure on an integrating global market for labor.
Unskilled workers, in particular, may fall farther behind. Managing these forces places a new burden on national policy makers--and on the international community as a whole--to ensure that the opportunities of global integration are broadly shared. The coming globalization also sees intensified stresses on the 'global commons'. Addressing global warming, preserving marine fisheries and containing infectious diseases will require effective multilateral collaboration to ensure that economic growth and poverty reduction proceed without causing irreparable harm to future generations.
IT is a source document for the development of Defense Policy. Key findings included eight major trends that were transformed into a scenario over the next three decades. These trends are: 1 Resource competition — economic growth and increased consumption will result in greater demand and competition for essential resources. Over the next 30 years, the resource-related challenges to global stability will be diverse, wide-ranging and significant. Climate change and a shifting environment; increasing demand for natural resources, particularly food, water and fossil fuels; a growing and rapidly globalizing economy; urbanization and the emergence of new health challenges will all have major impacts and unpredictable effects.
While the global economy is likely to grow during the period, improving material conditions for many people, the combined, uneven effect of these impacts will be to increase uncertainty for many, creating new sources of insecurity, instability and tension; 3 Economic growth combined with the continuing rise in the global population - will intensify the demand for natural resources, minerals and energy. Oil is likely to remain the principal source of motive power, particularly for vehicles, and growing competition for this diminishing resource will lead to a significant rise in energy prices.
It is possible that this will cause a slow down in economic growth from , although this may be offset by new sources of energy: coal derivatives, hydrogen fuel cells, bio-ethanol and for power generation, nuclear fusion. The discussion in this repot outline ways in which discontinuities may occur. The following is an excerpt from the scenario developed by an examination of trends to The complete text of the report can be found at the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centersite.
Scenario: Ring Road Issues. During the next three decades, there are constant tensions between growing interdependence and heightening competition among the nations. As a result, all aspects of human life changes at an unprecedented rate, throwing up new features, challenges, and opportunities. Three areas of change, or Ring Road issues, touches the lives of every human being on the planet by and aggravates climate change, globalization, and global inequality.
The increasing pace of climate change alters the physical environment in which a rapidly growing population lives and its access to habitable land, food and water is under strain. The world economy expands at an unprecedented rate and its different segments become more and more integrated, creating globalized interdependencies and enabling multiple supra-national linkages in all areas of human endeavor. This does not benefit all strata of the society in equal measure. There are gainers and losers. A sizeable section of the society sees substantial improvement in material living conditions while others continue to face hardship and deterioration in their plight.
These people suffer from fluctuations within a globalized market-based economy, making their lives full of uncertainties. In all the most affluent societies, rapid, large shifts in global markets, which are increasingly sensitive to uneven supply and changing demand, result in potentially dramatic change in personal fortune and confidence. Globalized communications field aspirations, heightened expectations and serves to expose differences in advantage and opportunity, stimulating grievance and raising the significance of global inequality as a social and political issue.
During the next three decades, thanks to globalization, the volume of world trade rapidly expand, cutting across national barriers and overcoming distance. This leads to internationalization and integration of markets for goods, services and labour. Even though this boosts the pace of economic growth, it brings risks for national markets of developing countries, as they are exposed to destabilizing influence of global market.
The ups and downs in the global market impact national markets, as they are transmitted through new and more efficient means of telecommunications. Labour comes under intensive pressure. Politically, globalization raises levels of interdependence between states that are increasingly integrated within the globalized economy. Notwithstanding the increasing global production and improving material conditions for most people, the income disparities widen and poverty continues to be an insurmountable challenge.
Policy Innovations. June, Established in , SustainAbility advises clients on the risks and opportunities associated with corporate responsibility and sustainable development. It brings macro trends into a pattern so readers can understand six dimensions that are encompassed in the four future scenarios.
The report uniquely creates the acronym G. The report ends with seven recommendations, or "new rules" to face the trade-offs involved in choices between environmental and social value. What is in the Cards for the Future? The report proposes four potential scenarios based on a card game metaphor for how the future will unfold over the next 20 years, depending on how business attends to social and environmental sustainability. Each scenario corresponds to a card suit Clubs, Diamonds, Spades, and Hearts on a matrix with environmental wins and losses on the horizontal axis and social wins and losses on the vertical axis.
Scenario 1 Hearts Scenario. It projects a scenario where a pandemic slows global transportation, forcing simultaneous attending to human health and curbing environmental impacts. The crisis inspires creative destruction and innovation that ultimately leads to true sustainability. The report acknowledges that the concept of sustainable development has stood the test of time since it was first injected into the political mainstream in by the Brundtland Commission, though the marriage between sustainability and development has always contained tension.
This is a world which demography, politics, economics, and sustainability gel. It is the future that the Brundtland Commission pointed us towards. The early years of this scenario, however, are rough, with a global pandemic shutting down global trade. But in this case the challenges come in forms that drive positive responses, underlining the importance of shared solutions and inclusiveness. Over time, virtuous spirals of improvement set in, in most places.
The outcome: a second Renaissance, but across a larger canvas. One key consequence is that natural resource prices rise, but another is that ecosystems are progressively undermined, with most governments unwilling to take the political risks of asking voters to make sacrifices in favor of the common good. The challenges are managed to a degree, thanks to more open societies, but not well enough.
Deteriorating environmental conditions gnaw at the islands of affluence. One outcome is a slowing of the destruction of ecosystems locally, but this future is characterized by protracted periods of social tension — broken with increasing frequency by insurrections.
Second Annotated Bibliography on Biological Effects of Metals in Aquatic Environments
The waves of change build fitfully, chaotically, with closed societies and communities often operating in denial for extended periods. Over time, this erodes islands of sustainability. The Spades and Clubs scenarios play out the potential consequences of over-weighting environmental sustainability at the cost of social stability, or over-weighting development in ways that compromise environmental viability. Demographic trends and the spread of western lifestyles devastate ecosystems.
Over time, as fear closes down thinking and creativity, vicious spirals develop in politics, governance, economics, and technology. Global Scenarios on Microfinance- Part I. Focus Notes No. A major driver for financial inclusion worldwide has been microfinance, a concept that gained extraordinary momentum over the past ten years. The authors at the World Bank ask whether this is strong enough to be irreversible?
Will it gather the momentum to reach the billions who still have no access to microfinance? This report takes a regional look at the low to middle income nations and considers regional stability factors in demographics, technology, and new financial structures. Part I herein looks at two scenarios of how wireless information technology impact regional microfinance.
If one or more of the BRICs were to become unstable and falter, global growth prospects would be seriously compromised. The report asserts that developed country capital, structures, standards, and advice is declining in influence when it comes to BRIC and in turn, what happens in the BRICs will affect the LICs low income countries.
BRIC models for economic growth are increasingly compelling. Over the next decade, cell phones may be the key to bringing microfinance to very poor and remote peoples. Wireless technology could radically reduce transaction costs and create anytime, anywhere access, even for very poor and remote clients.
However, in the BRICs, many of these countries have populist governments and are increasingly getting directly involved in delivering financial services directly to the poor. The following scenarios provide an overview of the effects of wireless technology on microfinance in these regions. This sparks the interest of domestic banks because the costs of executing low-value transactions can be lowered substantially. Because international banks are capturing most of the corporate clientele, domestic banks turn more to retail business. They invest in delivery systems that can reach more people at lower cost, thus improving access for lower-income clients.
In BRIC countries, the movement down-market starts with the burgeoning number of lower middle-class consumers. Major mobile phone operators form a new hub that enables international remittances to be securely and cheaply routed to mobile phone numbers. Innovation in handsets and software design spurs rapid customer adoption even among poor and illiterate clients. Regulators appreciate the potential of technology and especially the combination of cell phones, smart cards, and POS, to extend access.
In addition, they see wireless technology as a fast and transparent way to track transactions, making it easier, among other things, to comply with international standards that combat money laundering and the financing of terrorism. They amend regulations that limit banking transactions to conventional bank branches, allowing other infrastructure to do double duty as virtual branches. Once customers can make payments, transfers, cash withdrawals, and deposits outside of conventional branches, banking becomes more convenient and less intimidating for them.
User-friendly products, some tailored for illiterate and semi-literate customers, attract many poor clients. The increased volume of remittances and internal transfers stimulates demand for other services. Higher volumes and lower costs allow deeper penetration. Once deployed, this wireless backbone can handle huge numbers of transactions, including not only financial services but also other development activities. For instance, cell phones and wireless Internet kiosks transmit basic health education to poor households, market information to remote farmers, and rainfall conditions to holders of weather insurance.
Easy access to information makes it far simpler for those in developing countries to tap into global best practices. It also ensures that governments are held more accountable. The high fixed cost of technology infrastructure allows large banks to push out small players. The large banks find other opportunities more attractive than extending the lower income frontier of the retail market, thus leaving most of the poor outside the system and worsening the digital divide. As financial institutions move toward automated processes, clients interact more with machines than with people.
Governments in developing countries are concerned that increasing numbers of financial transactions, including deposit collection, occur outside of the banking sector, beyond their limited capacity to supervise. In reaction, they tighten financial regulations, prohibiting banking services via cell phones and other electronic means outside of bank branches. The trend away from legalizing immigration in Europe and the United States blocks access to bank accounts and possibly even easy cell phone subscriptions for immigrants in the North. This makes it harder to send funds safely and cheaply back home to family members.
The traditional donor community and other international actors supporting microfinance assume that technology can solve the access problem commercially: they think most of the job is done. They lose interest in financial inclusion. Most poor people are left behind, and entire LICs as well. This shift in interest leaves countries like Sudan and Zambia with limited support for building financial access, even while they remain on the fringes of the wireless revolution.
Part II herein looks at two scenarios of how state institutions impact regional microfinance. This is part II of the overview of global microfinance scenarios that look closer at the trend of new state credit programs in poor countries. In between, there are several other options: requiring institutions to lend to priority social sectors India, Colombia ; requiring financial institutions to serve the communities from which they receive deposits as with the U.
Armed with good practice guidance, governments could potentially provide these services directly and do a good job. On the other hand, governments may continue naturally to succumb to the significant social and political pressure to deliver subsidized, uncollectible loans. Scenario 1 Successful State Involvement. They follow examples such as Bank Rakyat Indonesia, a state bank that successfully built firewalls between politics and the technical business of banking, resulting in sustainable provision of more than 31 million savings accounts and 3. Based on sound practices and fuelled by massive injections of start-up capital, access skyrockets.
Loan repayment is high, and state banks become profitable. BRIC and other governments channel social transfer payments to the poor through state and other commercial banks, enabling many people to have bank accounts for the first time. They also encourage developments like credit bureaus that enable the poor to develop credit histories transferable from one provider to another.
The few success stories where governments in both BRICs and LICs have really insulated credit from politics and replaced traditional approaches with sounder practices draw imitators throughout the developing world. For one thing, aid flows, except in the poorest countries, are increasingly small relative to private capital flows and even smaller compared with remittances from workers abroad see Figure 5.
In remittances were less than half of official flows: by they were more than twice the size of official flows. As the cost of wiring money drops, and the number of migrants increases, remittances are likely to become an even more important source of money for the poor. The composition of the international donor community is also changing. New actors are emerging on the scene, both governments and private players.
Fortunes made in business, and especially in technology, are now being deployed to solve some of the problems of development. These same governments experience immense pressure to deliver resources quickly to poor and remote constituencies. In addition, a number of governments especially in BRICs and some Middle Eastern countries are so concerned about the potential impact of youth unemployment that they rush to create unsustainable microcredit schemes as a solution. Interest charged on the loans is far below the cost of delivering them, and borrowers are not compelled to repay them.
This kind of unfair competition squeezes out sustainable private MFIs. In BRIC countries, the governments finance these efforts as part of their welfare policy. In LICs, donors grudgingly agree to bankroll these new state players, in fear of being completely left out of the development debate in countries increasingly hostile to free-market ideas.
South-to-South dialogue and technical support hasten the spread of the new state credit initiatives throughout the developing world. Interest rate ceilings are imposed at levels too low for private microcredit players to survive, and so the subsidized and weak state-run Banks for the Poor are left as the only source of financial services for the poor. Thus poor people have access to their services only as long as the subsidy and political interest lasts. Peter H. Futures Research Quarterly. Spring The author describes global trends and the dynamics of trends by examining two scenarios of the future with two different timelines: and The following global trends were highlighted in the scenarios: 20 million people, completely self-determining and economically almost self-sufficient are heavily networking globally in respect to science, knowledge and know how, with strong feelings of responsibility for future generations as well as to help develop less developed regions.
Scenario 1 — Virtually the Same as Years Ago. Superpower Structure: The situation is comparable with that of years ago in that now, as then, there are hardly any fixed points of reference any more; chaos prevails. Traditional factors—such as states, their military and security forces the state's monopoly of power and strength , their economic power with commissions from the state or income from the state's tax monopoly and their territory—have largely lost their significance: the TNCs that have taken their place are neither wanting nor able to take these functions over.
TNCs are aware of their responsibility only towards their shareholders, or at best towards their customers. Some of this is about spheres of influence. And in some places there have already been millions of casualties. Old and new ideologies are about conquering the world and eternal happiness, as well as condemnations of opponents, going as far as new calls and plans for genocide.
Two entities play special roles: Urban Agglomerations: The chaotic conflicts are mainly fought in the urban agglomerations: in each of the approximately 50 megapols with more than 35 million inhabitants there are different victors, who enter alliances with like-minded rulers of other megapols wherever they may be in the world , and are not afraid to use hunger as a weapon for suppression within the regions.
Telematics: Telematics starts to be used to usurpers' ends, Orwell's visions were comparatively benign. Population: The world population declines, for the first time in over years. Migratory movements involving hundreds of millions of people leave behind completely devastated areas. To combat this migration, local armies in the shape of citizens' vigilante groups are in the making. Military Structure: Although the armies of the former national states no longer exist owing to the fact that the states are bankrupt , there are still huge arsenals of weapons available, constituting an incalculable risk like the old Soviet nuclear weapons did after the implosion of the USSR in In particular, there are signs that fundamentalist fanatics are contemplating and planning how they could get hold of them.
Economy: Due to the almost complete collapse of world trade, there are extremely acute supply shortages: between and the range of varying production processes was given up in favor of specialization and market niches almost everywhere in the world comparable with the situation in the USSR's successor states after the former had imploded. Education, Cuture, and Religion: Helplessness and rashness prevail, along with incriminations and the search for transcendental explanations for the disaster; but there is also a return to classical religions and values.
The latter result in the most varied recommendations as to how to overcome the crisis. Superpower Structure: History does not repeat itself, but historic parallels do keep occurring: due to the situation in the year , which retrospectively i. Since then, more and more proposals for a new version of the UN and a new world economic structure were put forward. Urban Agglomerations: Since poverty vk'as greatest here, some of them joined to form a democratic alliance against those megapolis that were ruled in criminal ways.
Their example encouraged the inhabitants of megapols ruled in criminal ways to gradually get rid of their rulers. They were assisted herein by both, the old political structures still in existence e. Apart from this, people—in accordance with their own needs—made themselves relatively self-sufficient locally i.
In a new sense, Mao's old saying, "Let 1, flowers bloom" came back into favor again. During the last decades, the vast worldwide telematics network has passed its democratic test. Dictatorships covering small areas even including those ruling several hundred million people were not able any more to conceal the truth from the people they suppressed.
And luckily, almost everywhere worldwide there was already so much telematics know-how available that local "experts" were unable to hinder communications to any substantial degree or penetrate even the most suppressed people. Population: The view that there is an optimum population for each area is now scarcely questioned. It has finally been recognized that the education of the population and its scientific and technological knowhow —not just its sheer numbers—constitute the capital of each region.
Since medical sciences had managed by to increase average life expectancy by over 14 years and remained stable since , world population has now stagnated at the level of 12 billion. Military Structure: There are just a few military units with geo-strategic tasks and abilities , which report to the UN; apart from this, there are security forces specific to individual territories, with technically superior equipment but rotating staff.
The territorial forces from two to three neighboring territories can prevent any invasion attempts by individual units, whilst the units with geo-strategic tasks can dissolve any alliance between several territorial forces. Scientific and Technological Development. Now, however, world associations exist again, even if they are not geared towards individual disciplines as they were previously. Economy: The term "economy" including the above-mentioned GDP rates is currently being replaced by complicated regional development indices, which are now nearly fully developed, and which subordinate thinking in terms of finance and capital to thinking in terms of quality of living.
Education, Culture and Religion: It is here that the actual fate-turning revolution has taken place. The egoistic, partial and particular manners of thinking—decisively shaped by the Occident—which so frequently resulted in criminal actions, realized its own limits in view of all the dangers, dimensions and complexities. Emphasis again is put on the concept of socially and environmentally tolerable flexibility. Global Innovation Outlook 2. Samuel J. The Global Innovation Outlook provides a platform for candid and open conversations about important issues of our day and in the future.
The Global Innovation Outlook also included experts on business and business innovation. The employee of are coders or computational biologists or designers or educators first, and employees second. But a more fluid, flexible and mobile workforce is just one factor driving this change by Also helping to redefine the notion of the enterprise is the confluence of collaborative innovation, networked technology, and viable new business models such as business process outsourcing, customer-driven design and peer-to-peer production.
The goal was to contain what was core, and ship out the noncore to lower-cost providers. By the nature of competition becomes increasingly intense, global and unpredictable—requiring strength across the board. The objective therefore, is to decompose the enterprise into its component parts, understand with great precision what is truly differentiating—where the enterprise has strengths and weaknesses—and then make decisions about how to build, buy or partner for world-class capability. In this model, companies can focus their energies on their true point of differentiation, instead of trying to master many domains and ultimately squander competitive advantage by dispersing focus and investment.
Rather than existing as static and fixed organizations, the enterprises of essentially become an aggregation of specialized entities with complementary interests—expanding, contracting and reconfiguring themselves in a way that best adapts to or even anticipates market dynamics. Paradoxical as it may sound, these super-flexible configurations prove more stable over time. Long Range Planning, Vol. Because the expected benefits were somewhat intangible the decision was made to treat the exercise as an "experiment" to see if the process was suitable for use within the company.
The exercise was divided into two phases: scenario development and scenario workshops. Each phase was led by a senior member from the Corporate Strategy department. The aim was to link the scenario workshops to the business plan of British Airways. Driving Forces for the scenarios included the information revolution, economic restructuring, and global competition.
See report for the complete scenarios. Scenario 1 Wild Gardens. In "Wild Gardens" global integration goes so far that it is impossible to build lasting new structures of governance to replace the old, crumbling structures. In this world it is the Darwinian battle of winners and losers which shapes the future. In terms of values, there is no clear direction, Europe widens to numerous countries, and the party splits and strange coalitions. Niche players flourish in the airline industry, new players enter and exits thus shifting alliances and commodity market behavior.
Scenario 2 New Structures. In "New Structures" shared values and new ways of organising are found which enable growth to continue in a manageable, rather than in a socially disruptive, way. Drivers include the market forces of competition and costs and need for flexibility.
In this world there is a earch for order and stability, infrastructure investments, and long-term horizens. Europe grows strongly but there are setbacks in Asia and LDCs. Values are inner-directed. Euro-enthusiasts deepen the EU. Asia focuses on security. In the airline industry subsidies end in Europe, more European mergers, large, powerful distributors, huge environmental costs, airport constraints slow growth, HS trains and video-conferencing takes off. The Chemical Advisory Group for Europe conducted a scenario workshop examining the external business driving forces for the scenarios.
This included the regulatory burden in Europe compared to the rest of the world; relative costs of Europe vs. Drivers relative to the chemical industry include restructuring by scrapping inefficient plants and invest in better ones and innovation not just in products and processes but also business models. Scenario 1 Sunny: Bright Future Ahead. The innovative climate, with support of the general public, encourages new technologies such as biotechnology, and the emergence of suppliers using new raw materials.
Customers and important industries stay in Europe. Overall costs do not improve, but also do not get worse. The mostly positive external environment encourages the chemical industry collectively to do its homework, finding new business models and proactively restructuring. This, in turn, spurs investment in the EU market and provides a flow of qualified workers, who no longer come from the synthetic chemistry background alone.
This emerges as a normative scenario, where win-win relations can be developed for governments, greens and industry if all play their cards right. Certainly, the hope must be that this will be taken up as the basis for discussion on how to move forward. This situation is further aggravated by high energy prices within the EU, and decreased refinery capacity, both of which push up production costs considerably.
Europe faces extremely tough competition from Asian finished products and Middle Eastern intermediate products. However, the regulatory authorities in the EU realize the problems, and give industry a helping hand in its restructuring, by supporting innovation and giving reasonable time delays for implementing regulations.
Thanks to the positive message from the regulator, restructuring is undertaken whole-heartedly across the industry, with scrap and build taking place and specialization in niche markets. While there is a shortage of qualified labor, this is partly made up by bringing in qualified staff from developing countries. It is clear from this that, even faced with a threatening external environment, there is hope if the authorities can be won over, and if all Cefic member companies join forces to transform the industry.
Even if some client industry segments are leaving Europe, important clients remain active. However, the EU legislative machine is stuck in a "muddling through mode" following enlargement, and is unable to steer policies to reform, or indeed in any particular direction. The result is an increasingly unclear regulatory situation, which damages business confidence.
Lacking this lead, the chemical industry fails to get its act together. Innovation is focused on short-term cost saving, restructuring is slow, and major investments flow to other parts of the world, leading to a brain drain, as top talent leaves in search of more dynamic horizons abroad. This scenario reinforces strongly the notion that the industry's fate lies in its own hands, too. A favorable outside world is not enough to guarantee success as, by failing to seize the opportunity given them, with each company thinking only for itself, problems ensue.
Even though Asia is not sucking in so much in investment, the problems of Europe are sufficiently large that few companies wish to build up local capacity there. Chemical companies therefore tend to cash-cow their EU assets, letting the productive resources age and decline. Innovation and innovators leave the European market, making it harder to recruit new talented human resources, even from outside the EU. This scenario is clearly a minatory tale of just how bad the picture could get in the absence of good will from all those involved.
World Out of Balance — Three Scenarios for McGraw Hill Education. Kearney's Paul Laudicina offers three scenarios that depict possible visions of the global future. Scenario One: Castles and Moats. Terrorist groups have continued their campaign of well-coordinated attacks against the United States and its institutions abroad.
They succeeded in eroding global confidence in what was once seen as the world's preeminent political and economic superpower. Although most of al Qaeda's leaders have been caught and killed, many questions are still unresolved. They include Palestinian statehood, ongoing conflicts in Central Asia and the Caucasus region, as well as worsening standards of living in Middle Eastern countries.
Fortress world - As a result, among Western nations, national security trumps all other concerns. Civil liberties have taken a backseat to security concerns, as governments subject their citizens to constant surveillance. With xenophobia on the rise, immigrants, foreign workers and even ethnic minorities are viewed with suspicion. Fewer and fewer people are willing to travel, work or live abroad, knowing that they will be subjected to intense scrutiny. As a siege mentality sets in, rising nationalist and populist sentiment is the catalyst for heightened levels of economic protectionism. Governments now consider it a high priority to protect jobs and prevent them from going overseas.
And barriers to foreign investment and cross-border travel ensure that countries can safeguard their own unique ways of life. Countries no longer believe in the efficacy of multilateral arrangements and prefer alliances with small groups of like-minded countries they feel they can trust. The state of the world and the business environment is characterized by a muddle-through mentality.
Few governments show much leadership or vision — or even have enough high-quality talent to try to do so. The corporate sector responds in kind. Companies seek growth and profits by working their relationships and looking for advantage wherever they can find it in a fairly chaotic and turbulent world. Large patches of the globe are mired in poverty and violence, although the good news for North America, Europe and Australasia is that much of the trouble is localized. It does not spill over excessively into the zones of affluence, though they would be getting even more affluent if global growth rates were higher.
The United States and the expanded European Union prove to be more resilient than others, given their vast internal demand and relative self-sufficiency. Widening divide - However, trade barriers in export markets have a damaging impact on key industrial sectors in Japan, China and Southeast Asian nations, curtailing overall macroeconomic growth in these countries. Government aid and emergency financing grow more scarce, leaving the developing world to fend for itself, while the world's wealthiest consumers account for a greater share of global spending power than at any other time in modern history.
Rise of the middle class - In advanced markets, these on-the-go consumers show a penchant for sophisticated, easy-to-use goods and services that simplify lifestyles and address personal needs. January 13, — July 18, was a prolific 19th-century American author, best known for his many formulaic juvenile novels about impoverished boys and their rise from humble backgrounds to lives of middle-class security and comfort through hard work, determination, courage, and honesty.
Tenth Day… Find all the days here Thank you Librivox. He is best known as a novelist, but he also worked in other fields such as journalism, propaganda, and film. Grinling - aside from several books on trains and the history of railways in Britain, evidently, Mr. Grinling didn't do much else of note. Ninth Day… Find all the days here Thank you Librivox.
Charles Lutwidge Dodgson 27 January — 14 January better known by the pen name Lewis Carroll, was an English writer, mathematician, logician, Anglican deacon and photographer. His most famous writings are Alice's Adventures in Wonderland and its sequel Through the Looking-Glass, as well as the poems "The Hunting of the Snark" and "Jabberwocky", all examples of the genre of literary nonsense. He is noted for his facility at wo rd play, logic, and fantasy, and there are societies in many parts of the world including the United Kingdom, Japan, the United States, and New Zealand dedicated to the enjoyment and promotion of his works and the investigation of his life.
Christmas Greetings scroll to end of text Read by: Lucy Perry David Hartley Coleridge 19 September — 6 January was an English poet, biographer, essayist, and teacher. He was the eldest son of the poet Samuel Taylor Coleridge. Christmas Barring-Out Read by: BookAngel7 A little insight into customs from other times Sir Walter Scott 15 August — 21 September 1st Baronet was a Scottish historical novelist, playwright, and poet, popular throughout much of the world during his time. Scott was the first English-language author to have a truly international career in his lifetime, with many contemporary readers in Europe, Australia, and North America.
His novels and poetry are still read, and many of his works remain classics of both English-language literature and of Scottish literature. Christmas in the Olden Time Read by: Lucy Perry John Clare 13 July — 20 May was an English poet, the son of a farm labourer, who came to be known for his celebratory representations of the English countryside and his lamentation of its disruption. She was educated at home, and read widely; she commenced writing verses at a very early age.
Together with her husband, William Howitt, she wrote over books. She devoted herself chiefly to the study of the social history of the Colonial and Revolutionary periods of the United States, wrote a number of entertaining books and magazine articles in this field, and was chosen historian of the The National Society of the Colonial Dames of America.
Eighth Day… Find all the days here Thank you Librivox. Marion Clifford, Lady Dunboyne c. She sometimes also wrote under her married name Marion Clifford-Butler. His writing greatly assisted the political career of Theodore Roosevelt and he also played a major role in the evolution of the American magazine. Seventh Day… Find all the days here Thank you Librivox. Andrew Barton "Banjo" Paterson xmas short works Santa Claus Read by: Son the Exiles Rudyard Kipling 30 December — 18 January was an English short-story writer, poet, and novelist chiefly remembered for his tales and poems of British soldiers in India, and his tales for children.
He was born in Bombay, in the Bombay Presidency of British India, and was taken by his family to England when he was five years old. She also wrote under the pseudonym Ellis Towne. Sara L. Elizabeth Harrison September 1, — October 31, was an American educator. How to Celebrate Christmas p. The son of a bookseller and printer at Windsor, he was apprenticed to his father. On completion of his indentures he took up journalism and had an interest in several newspaper speculations, including the Windsor, Slough and Eton Express.
The politics of it in an image a. McClure, who was a professor of biology at Princeton. Henry, was an American writer. Henry's short stories are known for their wit, wordplay, warm characterization and clever twist endings. Good Districts To Visit. This is NOT an episode to have a first-listen with your kids in the car.
To that end, I am well aware that there will be parts of this epis ode that will anger you. I encourage you to use the recording app on your phone and switch back and forth between listening and responding so you have your thoughts in order. And, finally, You might be expecting me to deal with this topic through the lens of classic literature.
With one exception, that will not happen in this episode. This is personal. This is nothing more than my thoughts—a culmination of 31 years of my experiences and thoughts—on this topic. We have faced many characters in complicated relationships where we in the modern world have very different responses regarding issues of consent. Byronic Heroes are not unknown to us. However, you may wish to hunt down the post by David Wong at of all places Cracked. Included there are links out to everything I mention that is link-to-able.
To begin at the beginning, my husband pointed out a month-or-so ago that every woman he knew had put a MeToo hashtag on their feed. Sadly, none surprised him. For a long time it had defined part of me, but then I got married, then I had a son, then I was teaching HS the day we were evacuated from the tip of an island off the coast of North America when a plane tried to drop a building on us, then I had another son, then I became a podcaster, an author, a speaker—I outgrew simple definitions.
There is nothing simple about the conversation that is swirling around us right now—and I say that as both a MeToo and as a mother of young men. The mother of some rather justifiably nervous young men. Ha Ha. I get it. One of the most revealing conversations I ever had was with a class of recidivist freshmen. This was not their first time in Freshman English. It might have been their third or fourth, to be honest. But they sure taught me. I was particularly lucky because my students had learned that they could trust me—at least it seemed to believe they could. I sure hoped they could. As the only white person in the room at the time, I asked for clarification.
Near as I can recall the conversation went something like this: Me: Wait, what? Student: Well, you know, Miss. Me: Wait. Laughter Student: clearly baffled by my response and the laughter Um…yeah… Me: George, how much money do you think I make??? Student: backpedaling You know, Miss? Like, you make enough. You can, you know, buy…stuff you want. We get promised decent health care, and retirement, in exchange for not getting rich—almost enough to pay rent and eat. These shoes I got at Payless. I went on to break down how much I brought home every two weeks and what my monthly expenses were.
The rustling in the room got louder as we worked our way towards that fact—a fact that the students brought up again and again in class when people made assumptions or worked off of stereotypes. Things I saw our students do that I—at first—thought were SO self-defeating, so working against their best interests — were, often as not, learned survival skills. We had a whole cross section of girls who got to school late every day. Same amount of late Every Day. Their moms and dads both worked, often more than one job and frequently in overlapping shifts which meant one adult was still on the way home from a late shift on public transit early in the morning when the other was leaving for an early shift.
CraftLit - Serialized Classic Literature for Busy Book Lovers
Baby has to go to daycare. Affordable daycare starts at the same time as school. Have her take the baby to daycare then go to school. Someone else will pick the baby up so the oldest daughter can stay late and get help, library access, or just a quiet place to study. But it took several years for me to learn that. All the kids knew how it worked. To me. It is all about power. Back to Louis CK. All of it. Because I think it should be the gold standard by which we judge responses to this issue.
Allow me to give you a smidgen of context for why I believe that. A lot. He and Mark Maron have spoken about their enemyship and their friendship and how the difficulties they encountered paralleled each other but how they ultimately found success—albeit in relatively different areas. I guarantee you, if a female comedian heard me say that she would have snorted. How that convo might have been perceived by the woman he was speaking to would very likely have sounded very different. He learned—the hard way—about power disparities. We say that we want people to own it. Anyone who accused him of something that unsavory must just be bitter…or a bitch…or frigid…or a feminist.
Because, I mean, who are they going to believe? So what have we learned? Sadly, that not much has changed since , or, more accurately, nothing much has changed since… forever. He should be scared—or at least very very nervous. Let me read it to you now because you have to hear it—all of it—for this last bit to make sense. I want to address the stories told to The New York Times by five women named Abby, Rebecca, Dana, Julia who felt able to name themselves and one who did not.
These stories are true. At the time, I said to myself that what I did was O. The power I had over these women is that they admired me. And I wielded that power irresponsibly. I have been remorseful of my actions. And run from them. I learned yesterday the extent to which I left these women who admired me feeling badly about themselves and cautious around other men who would never have put them in that position.
There is nothing about this that I forgive myself for. And I have to reconcile it with who I am. Which is nothing compared to the task I left them with. I wish I had reacted to their admiration of me by being a good example to them as a man and given them some guidance as a comedian, including because I admired their work.
I have spent my long and lucky career talking and saying anything I want. I will now step back and take a long time to listen. Thank you for reading. That still works. I had to actually get to know people who at a first—very superficial—glance were so different from me, only to find that our middle class upbringings, our relationships with our loving and supportive parents, our thoughts about love and life and career were all so similar as to be indistinguishable from one another. Until you factored in chances for success.
One of my bosses in Hollywood told me a story once.
Not even the people in power. One was a tentative Trump supporter in the upper midwest. At his own Thanksgiving table, this embodiment of the American dream, Frank, was served a plateful of stereotypes from a 20 year old kid—you must be a bigot, classist, uneducated, small-minded, evangelical, gay-bashing, woman-hating, immigrant-fearing, gun-loving, war-mongering idiot. Frank was, as would many of us be, speechless. And enraged. He started a business. He supported his family. He paid his taxes. Not because it was fun. Not because he was following his bliss. Again, to those with less power, his power is very obvious.
To him, all he saw was how much work he put into making a good life for his family and his kids. So Frank was unhappy. Why do you assume that about me? No one sets out to be a failure or hateful—but often what looks like hate, is really just fear. The assault I suffered was a very different kind of crime from the assault survived by one of the young women in a support group I eventually attended.
She was attacked getting out of her car, with her laundry basket, in sweats, no makeup, hair piled on her head. She was threatened at knife-point. She was terrorized. Her case seems like a simple and clear-cut criminal assault. She still had people—often official-type people and not just men—ask her if she actually saw the knife. Or imply that she was asking for it—because she was blonde, tan, and pretty. I, of course, have never found sweats and no makeup that appealing, but hey, what do I know? The betrayal we experienced at having people who should have believed us who should have been on our side, who should have helped, or should have at the very least, have tried to help us make sure that the perpetrator never hurt anyone like that again—the betrayal we experienced at having people who should have believed us walk away or turn their backs—was the same.
The crime itself was different. Which is kind of the point. The chances of the guy who assaulted her being surprised by being accused of rape is pretty slim. There are norms of behavior we need to respect. Because that kind of behavior—owning your mistake, allowing justice to run its course with the belief that justice will, in fact, be just —that is what we teach our children. That is what we tell them the world is like.
So we have to act like it, too. Because the kids are watching us. The person with less power, however, knows it. I hope, that when the world shifts away from that, we can lose that bravado and learn how to deal with not being on top gracefully. I might be delusional. But I have to be hopeful because of my sons.
I laughed. He laughed too, and we had a really spectacular working relationship for nearly three years. Did he ever touch me? Not once. Would he be in serious trouble nowadays for making the French Maid joke. But I listened. And I watched him. Or a requirement. It was a joke. No bathrobes were involved. This was Hollywood. Karmic payback for having crossed paths with a sociopath in college, perhaps. I like to think that I took what happened to me and learned some valuable lessons from it. The kind of betrayal James Comey experienced—watching the Attorney General walk out of that room—is exactly the kind of betrayal women have felt when left alone with someone they know is unsafe.
CraftLit - Serialized Classic Literature for Busy Book Lovers
It is the closing of the door that is the most terrifying. At that point there is almost nothing you can do to win. Society will label you with one negative no matter which way you come out of that room. You can either be a frigid bitch or you can be a whore. Atticus would be disappointed. And slut shaming is done by women at least as often as men. Ask my dorm roommates. They got to watch it up close. None of this has been about sexual attraction or chemistry or a date gone bad. Because those in power know less about how that power is perceived than the people without the power. There are the unknowing wielders, and then there are the others.
We know those guys are predators. These guys are wearing suits! When in a position of power there are few people brave enough to be Abraham Lincoln and actively search for smart people who disagree with them to surround themselves with. Instead, powerful people tend to gravitate to those who agree—or seem to agree—with them until the world they live in shows them in no uncertain terms every hour of every day that everyone wants to do what they want them to do. So if everyone wants what you want them to do, how could kissing or touching this woman who knows you—how could that be any sort of violation?
Because obviously, she wanted it. How could she not? People who care about words meaning what they mean. When we look at the language and rhetoric being used in all of these arguments, debates, and statements, help the people around you to take a step back and look at the language being used. We might not want to even if we could. But is it easy to understand how an overweight, schlubby guy who grew up overweight and schlubby, might see getting anything he wants is payback for years of humiliation and being ignored by women?
Looking at the way he defends himself, yeah. Does it make what he did any less reprehensible? Heck no. The crime is the crime is the crime. A rose by any other name… It just means that solving the problem—helping him come to terms with what the problem is in the first place, is a different conversation. Violence, whether psychological or physical, that involves sex or sexuality, is never about sex or sexuality. A girl can dream. But mostly, I hope that my friends and colleagues who are raising daughters are raising girls to be able to tell the difference between an honorable young man who does not have their best interests at heart.
Until I had someone brave enough to talk to me, honestly, and without anger. Back then. Literature is there to show us how to grow, how to act, and often as not how NOT to act and grow. That is one of the reasons why education, specifically in the humanities, is so vital. But today I thank you for listening. I also know from our long sojourn together that unlike the rest of the internet, CraftLit listeners respond to each other with kindness and compassion—you are my Finch-Family Community. You are the ones who prove to me, over and over again, that the world can be a good and safe and happy place.
Because you always listen. And think. And research. And share. And speak—always with compassion and thought and care. I hope I have. I believe—and I will continue to believe—that Humanity can do better than that. I have to believe that. Because like you, I love my children. And I want them, and yours, to have safe and happy lives. This is the printing I read in school. Our Episode Sponsor is… lovepop cards starts at Unlock special pricing for 5 or more cards AND get free shipping on any order by going to lovepop.
More Jeeves on Premium! Which you pick will be determined by how you like to listen: CraftLit. Jonathan Uffleman is our Jeeves reader moving forward and I cannot be more excited about that! The Importance of Being Earnest is definitely in the works…but not until next Spring. Very excited about both of those. Our Episode Sponsor is… HelloFresh. Let's Communicate! Or, you know Just know the link is here for you when you're ready. More on our sponsor, here. Plus here's the pdf on how to get the audio you want. Once the book is a wrap Heather wants to hear your thoughts on the longest book CraftLit has tackled.
But if you're a bit behind don't worry - you can still call in with your takeaways once you've finished and Heather will do another "Wrap-up" episode in a month or so if there are more voices to be heard. Recording from home can be isolating at times, so it feels great to go out into the wild and meet up with fellow casters to talk about improving our shows and the impact we have on listeners. I've listed a handful of podcasts I encountered at the con ference which I go into more detail about in the episode.
Be brave! Find something new to listen to. Started Sept 1st. And was out at the protests. One of the longest running, certainly one of the longest profitable, podcasts out there out of southern NJ, too! Fan Theory Podcast --iTunes etc, Facebook. Thank you, Teresa! This episode covers chapters and features a few reminders in the pre-book talk to make sure you're all caught up.
It's no surprise that the end of the book is rapidly approaching. But if you're a bit behind don't worry - you can still call in with your takeaways once you've finished and Heather will do another "Wrap -up" episode in a month or so if there are more voices to be heard. Book Notes Heather is back from Germany! She is dropping four chapters this week as we approach the end of the book.
Heather is currently returning from Germany. Wish her some good rest and get to listening! Heather is currently jetting over the great Atlantic yonder to Germany. Wish her safe travels and all of you stay safe out there, too. Heather is absorbing secrets and mysteries from the sea. She'll divulge her discoveries upon her return. Creator Katie Geddes is proud to invite you into this business- and life-changing process.
Go to EmbodyFocus. But in vain did he rack his imagination; fertile as it was, he could not devise any plan for reaching the island without companionship. Dantes was tossed about on these doubts and wishes, when the patron, who had great confidence in him, and was very desirous of retaining him in his service, took him by the arm one evening and led him to a tavern on the Via del' Oglio, where the leading smugglers of Leghorn used to congregate and discuss affairs connected with their trade. Already Dantes had visited this maritime Bourse two or three times, and seeing all these hardy free-traders, who supplied the whole coast for nearly two hundred leagues in extent, he had asked himself what power might not that man attain who should give the impulse of his will to all these contrary and diverging minds.
This time it was a great matter that was under discussion, connected with a vessel laden with Turkey carpets, stuffs of the Levant, and cashmeres. It was necessary to find some neutral ground on which an exchange could be made, and then to try and land these goods on the coast of France. If the venture was successful the profit would be enormous, there would be a gain of fifty or sixty piastres each for the crew.
Ways to subscribe to CraftLit: your weekly annotated audiobook podcast: Click here to subscribe via iTunes Click here to subscribe via RSS You can also subscribe via Stitcher Or subscribe through the app see below Plus here's the pdf on how to get the audio you want. But here's the pdf on how to get the audio you want: Sign into your membership account in the sidebar. No so much for the written notes. Want a button? Just kick back and enjoy the train wreck.
The evil meat allergy ticks InsectShield clothin g ZapIt! I do not want to throw the pump in the trash for each bottle I order. Great product Answer: If your going to use multiple bottles of permethrine I bought a bottle of permethrine Then I got a one gallon lawn and garden sprayer. The just dilute the permethrine to the. That is half of one percent.
Dilute as follows. Sooo much cheaper this way. And your right why buy and throw out all those plastic bottles, Permethrine SFR is available on Amazon. The bottle have a ounce measuring thing built in. Make gallons of the stuff for so little money Just use 4 ounces of SFR in one gallon my preference I treat everything I wear from the waist down, socks and shoes, pants shorts.
My wife's clothes too. Hope that helps. Listen here. King James: 17 He that hath pity upon the poor lendeth unto the LORD; and that which he hath given will he pay him again Kiosk - A small open gazebo or pavilion. The utterance of maliciously false statements; slander. CraftyChat This week is JetChat! The successful! Jet has my elusive 2-gallon Ziplocs!
Unboxing their awesome packing job. Cold items arrived fresh as daisies! Visit jet. Chapter 76 Book Talk: E. Tetanus-Mayo Clinic page Ew. Everyone was murmuring about how amazing the view "below us" was. I'd tried several times to get a pic while standing, but couldn't get it until I crouched low. Which do you prefer? Pic 1 or Pic 2? Crafty Chat, etc. Chapter 71 Repeat post of chapter 67's Character Relationship Chart for your sanity :.
Map below includes all the Normandy locations. Let me know. Heather's Birthday! This is Justin reporting in. Make sure you reach out to her on Facebook or Twitter and wish her well. I hear each birthday wish will make one of her body's cells immortal. CraftLit forever! Go to CraftLit. Did they get out of the Count's digs in a hurry or what? Stroke Treatment, and a glossary of old medical terms.
Go to Blin or Veronique for your clothes. Baptistin will tell you where, if you do not know their add ress. The less pretension there is in your attire, the better will be the effect, as you are a rich man. If you mean to buy any horses, get them of Devedeux, and if you purchase a phaeton, go to Baptiste for it. Really, this week, not so much. Or, see my bag here. Her Patreon adventure Articles on how the industry is changing here, here, and here. ISBN Cambridge Scholars Publishing. Oh No! Not Again! Where is Perugia? Parroquet parakeet Aqua Tofana: "The ingredients of the mixture are basically known but not how they were blended.
Aqua Tofana contained mostly arsenic and lead and possibly belladonna. It was a colorless, tasteless liquid and so easily mixed with water or wine to be served during meals. Money disposes. God Laughs. The editing software ground to a halt and nearly took the recording with it. Justin, my hero! Yay You!!!
The 12 Days Before Christmas begins here: craftlit. THAT was a first. The Genius Bar was stunned to respectful silence. Epic computer meltdown right after recording. I'm actually typing these notes on my phone. No idea when I'll have a working machine again or at least a machine I can trust to keep working. Not exactly in the holiday budget All hail Justin! And on that note, I go back to the tech support call that's had me on hold Premium Audio -- War of the Worlds - 15 - the end Here's the Ravelry thread for ideas and suggestions.
- Finishing the Hat.
- Knight Moves: The K J Knight Story!
- Flora of Tropical East Africa: Balanitaceae.
- Adam Hincks / Writings: Book Notes.
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- Book of Life!
- Monsoon Shortcut – Free Online Books.
San Sebastian just a start o f all the stuff you can find on this puppy! Three Men in a Boat is now in the shop! If you missed it as a Premium Member, now you can download the whole shebang and giggle through the dog days of summer. Premium Audio -- Will be classic science fiction One way or another! Want a Count-ish button? And I'm working on getting us awesome audio! Once I have it - you'll know about it!
Pi Shawl Mmmm. The That'sTooBig-a-saurus Nannette's gift shirt - see the "stitches" on the world! Closing in on the end More fun with da boys. Knock Thyself Out! Pont du Garde Cool Roman Aqueduct you've seen before! Only one million dollars! These canals had something to do with it. Did you pick up on La Carconte and her Malaria? The fashion I mentioned to you, [especially on the women. Those sleeves! What does this tell us? Out of fashion? Oh Ross You will not believe what Dawn got a picture of at t he wool festival!
The week of birthin' babies made it too trick y to get crafty audio to you, but you probably will want to go see what Dawn is up to. My fave scene! Montmorency and Irish Stew Want a Count-ish button? This time with pineapple! Oh my. Please go take a look at this page on their website Another piece of gorgeous writing at the end of this chapter!
However, we've got a little sample for you below. Listen to a Sneak Peek of our current premium audio! Get more annotated audiobooks! Infernal Ropes!!! This way, if you missed the th Episode Share-fest, you can do it now. Public Domain version: By dint of constantly dwelling on the idea that tranquillity was death, and if punishment were the end in view other tortures than death must be invented, he began to reflect on suicide. Unhappy he, who, on the brink of misfortune, broods over ideas like these! Before him is a dead sea that stretches in azure calm before the eye; but he who unwarily ventures within its embrace finds himself struggling with a monster that would drag him down to perdition.
Once thus ensnared, unless the protecting hand of God snatch him thence, all is over, and his struggles but tend to hasten his destruction. This state of mental anguish is, however, less terrible than the sufferings that precede or the punishment that possibly will follow. There is a sort of consolation at the contemplation of the yawning abyss, at the bottom of which lie darkness and obscurity. Robin Buss' translation , : …eventually he fell into the melancholy quietude of thoughts of suicide.
Woe to the man who, sliding into misfortune, is drawn by such dark thoughts! Once caught, he is lost if God does not come to his aid, and every effort that he makes pulls him nearer to death. It is used for road surfacing and roofing. Perhaps the funniest beginning to a chapter ever at least until the next one.
Call Dianne to get All The News on signing up , Holiday Vacations: Keyword "Craft" A Quilt for Henry If you would like to be part o f A Quilt for Henry for Vanessa's son, please click the link and you'll go to Mollie's gorgeous blog where you'll find all the information and instructions. Heather's LYS with the fabu Lang yarn! Actually On The Boat!
Our first Travelogue! Original pattern was in sea pearl, but I love this one too. Next week! He cooked it, then mashed it, and added it to the tomato sauce and cheese. Kid didn't even taste it and didn't know there was an extra veggie in there until she heard me say so during the livestream today. Some of the above links are affiliate links. Clicking will help support CraftLit. Barometers and trains! This one might be a little cheesey Enjoy the laughs!
Crimp beads are just… crimp beads. Briar Rose Fibers: www. She will be joined by Thing Two starting late Friday afternoon. Erica will be posting to Instagram and Twitter throughout the weekend. Her name on both is ericah Expect a full Stitches run-down next week in Crafty Chat. We welcome suggestions!
Two samples of her shawl pattern Fangirl will be on display, and hardcopies of the pattern can be purchased there. Electronic copies are available on Ravelry. Electronic copies of the pattern are available on Ravelry. Got a genius idea for Defarge Does Sherlock? Get it in before the end of February to be considered for inclusion in the book!
We could especially use some more crochet patterns. This version has been brightened. That will give way soon enough. You see, Sir, my family starts where yours ends. Click here to easily post a tweet! Thank you, Nancy! Let me know if the comments below, on a voicemail , or email me.
So am I!!! Come meet me and get a dose of Cognitive Anchoring! Cognitive Anchoring! Presenting said talk! Join The Fun! Here's how It's coming sooner than you think! Email me or go here and see how to toss your hat in the ring, send your audio into the mix, but your mouth where your ears will be and be heard on CraftLit! That's the awesome name of this short story! P resenting said talk! In London? Come meet me and get a dose of Cogni tive Anchoring!
CraftLit's new wiki site! This time it's epic! Try the first bundle of five. We'll give you a bit of time to listen, then send you a discount coupon in case you'd like to get the rest. If you have a particularly good Android recorder, please add it to the comments for everyone to see! Pixel Squares - what is and patterns Yarn in the City! More here Cognitive Anchoring site NOT your normal corset: and a post on the importance of metal boning and an article with comments that are at least as enlightening if not moreso.
Then there's this truly fascinating Pinterest page on underthings — And my fave pic so far: And our video of listeners listening you can still send in pix - I'll add - I have a couple of new ones to add on deck now that I'm thinking about it Email me! Yarn in the City! More here — Cognitive Anchoring site— And our video of listeners listening you can still send in pix - I'll add - I have a couple of new ones to add on deck now that I'm thinking about it It's coming sooner than you think!
Go here and see how to toss your hat in the ring, send your audio into the mix, but your mouth where your ears will be and be heard on CraftLit! Sign up for the Newsletter Here. View original instagram or visit INK Julie's treatise on podcasts vs pro-casts very nicely done, if I do say so myself! No, really! Email me or go here and vote or add your own idea Book Talk - 15 minutes Bill Bryson's book on rooms Thank you Jeanne — and Sandy — Julie's treatise on podcasts vs pro-casts very nicely done, if I do say so myself!
Minus ten points for Ravenclaw I mean Heather. The technology woes mentioned in the show exploded after recording and losing the audio again The good news is that I get a new harddrive next Tuesday. A girl can dream Please use the form at the bottom of the shownotes. One Stop Shopping! Crafty Jon Scholes! On a radio soap! Listen to him on Station Road! The first episode itself with be broadcast on Saturday the 25th of July as part of the pm programme, which will involve some chatting with some cast and writers, maybe me if they pick me. The time for the episode specifically will be pm. Episode 1 will be repeated as part of Monday's drive time at pm on the 27th Episode 2 will be part of Wednesday's drive time at pm on the 29th Episode 3 will be part of Friday's drive time at pm on the 31st and so on, Monday, Wednesday, and Fridays.
Major root chord, major chord on the 5th note, minor chord on the 6th note, and major chord on the 4th note. Root chord, the 6 chord, the 3 chord, and the 7 chord of the minor scale or minor progression. Minor root chord, major chord on the 6th note, major chord on the 3rd note, and major chord on the 7th note. Special th episode ideas? Sponging House Meeting to "Defend" at this time well If you dug this episode head on over to iTunes and kindly leave a rating, a review, and subscribe to the free podcast!
You can ask your questions, make comments, and let us know what you do when you listen to CraftLit! Premium Audio -- Reboot of Canterbury Tales Episode later this week —because technology bites to be followed shortly by the first Tale the Knight's. I'm interested in onine book group meetings. Hangouts aren't really my thing. No thanks. Powered by MailChimp Chop Bard! More next week! She also has a surprising article on the 'hidden horrors' of authentic German uniforms for WWII re-enactors - read carefully as she does warn you when you're about to hit some disturbing photos and information towards the last third.
And our video of listeners listening you can still send in pix - I'll add! A Pretty Yew English Cedar : Olives, sweetmeats, dried cherries—basically, everything you ever wanted to know about preserves in the 19th C. It is also not for people with limited senses of humor Consider yourself warned. Click here to post a tweet! Let's hear YOU for a bit, yes? Book talk starts at Send us your info via this link. The City da da da DUM Sideboard Collation Lavender Water what is and recipe. If you have a better recipe, please add the link in the comments or post it at Patreon.
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If you dug this episode head on over to iTunes and kindly leave a rating, a review—and, of course, don't forget to subscribe to the free podcast! If you grew up in the s From the CraftLit Group on Facebook: 25 of Oscar Wilde's Wittiest Quotes —Thank you Rita Podcasts as Classroom Finals —thank you Jeniffer —thank you AT Kathi says In Our Time seems to be listening to CraftLit Finding out if Elizabeth Gaskell's books helped to make this happen for Kathi Medieval Women's Manners site —thank you Char 'Fiona' Chicks in Charge in the early s —thank you Dixie More fodder for Cognitive Anchoring —thank you Leanna A new podcaster with an important first podcast —thank you Harriet And finally, from Maia From whence we got Thing 2's Mermaid tail and the Fin Fun site with videos Michelle's "moon" section from Herland, chapter 4: We reconnoitered as widely as we could in the failing moonlight-- moons are of a painfully unreliable nature; but the growing dawn showed us the familiar shape, shrouded in some heavy cloth like canvas, and no slightest sign of any watchman near.
We decided to make a quick dash as soon as the light was strong enough for accurate work. Here are pics from Ann2step about her lampwork bead-making fun: Special th episode ideas? Email if you want to hangout and I'll find a time that works for all of us who are interested Homeschooler book request form Book Talk - and how to write a letter - Regency Style! Check out this awesome doohickey! A 'Wax Jack'! One way to post a letter!
Note: not all apps are free. Homeschooler book request form Book Talk - and that's it, folks! Jekyll and Mr. Hyde this week. Episode Sponsors Want a button? Know BJ? Wanna introduce me to him? He's reading Elizabeth von Armin another possible future CraftLit author?